Donald Trump, political violence, and the future of America
Reflections on the assassination attempt and further developments. Plus: some housekeeping.
This piece was originally published in the Freethinker on 15 July 2024. Below it, I have added some new reflections on more recent developments in the US. A reminder: I’ll love you forever, or at least for a while, if you sign up to the Freethinker’s newsletter, follow us on Twitter/X and Facebook, or donate.
Donald Trump was nearly killed a couple of days ago, and the consequences of this failed assassination attempt will reverberate for a long time, and in ways that nobody can now predict. Have the photos of a bloodied but unbowed Trump defiantly raising his fist as he was ushered off-stage won him the presidential election? Quite possibly. Such iconic images appear only very rarely, and even the staunchest of Trump’s critics (of which I am one) cannot but admire the man’s vigour in this instance.
Plus, Joe Biden’s cognitive state is no longer the centre of attention, which might mean that the pressure among Democrats for him to stand down and allow a more able candidate to contest the election will dissipate. I was sceptical that Biden would step down anyway, but now I think it a certainty that he will face Trump in November. Both these things—the sympathy, outrage, and defiance and the retaining of Biden as the Democratic candidate—mean almost certain victory for Trump.
This would be a disaster. I need not enumerate all the reasons why—or not at length, anyway. That Trump is a fascistic, racist, criminal lunatic; that he is openly antagonistic to democracy and the peaceful transition of power; that he is contemptuous of the American Constitution; that he is the darling of the Christian theocrats; that a Trump win would likely mean defeat for Ukraine and NATO, and perhaps even the liberal democratic world as a whole—all these things are known to everybody. And still, I fear, he will triumph.
Worse, the Supreme Court recently granted him, and all other presidents, some immunity for actions taken in office—so whatever restraints there may once have been are now gone, and Trump, if he wins, will be able to act as ‘a king above the law’, in the words of dissenting Justice Sonia Sotomayor. (Contrast this sorry state of affairs with the declaration of Thomas Paine in 1776 that in America, ‘so far as we approve of monarchy…the law is King.’)
Concern over a Trump victory being one of the consequences of the assassination attempt might seem cold. It is not. Political violence in a liberal democracy is to be deplored, no matter the target, and I am glad that Trump is okay. Conspiracy theories from Trump opponents, and the glee evinced by some at the attempt (all the while regretting only that the would-be assassin missed), are foolish and disgusting. I also feel for the man who was killed saving his family and the two people injured by the shooter. The former, Corey Comperatore, was a hero, and I have no compunction about saying that.
But the view of many Trump supporters that the shooting happened as a direct result of the rhetoric about Trump being a threat to democracy is misplaced, if not outright absurd. The only person responsible for the shooting is the shooter, not the words of others. It is possible—and necessary—to name and oppose anti-democratic politicians without calling for violence. Trump really is a threat to American democracy, and shooting him is not the answer. People like Trump are best beaten by arguments and ballots. If the Democrats and other opponents of Trump now shy away from telling the truth about him, they will do their country, and the world, a disservice.
Besides, Trump and other Republicans’ long history of promoting violence and using genuinely extreme rhetoric (which is still, I hasten to add, legitimate free speech) against Democrats shows this claim to be the shameless piece of hypocritical opportunism that it is. Contrast, for example, Trump’s vile public mockery of Nancy and Paul Pelosi after the latter’s skull was nearly caved in by a far-right fantasist in 2022 with Biden’s humane response to the Trump shooting (not to mention the decency of the Pelosis themselves). Accurately describing Trump and the threat he represents to America and the world is free speech, not inciting violence.
On the other hand, January 6 2021 was the climax of a months-long campaign conducted by Trump to cling to power and overturn the result of a free and fair election. The shoddy gunmanship of a lone attacker, whatever his motives, should not obscure the far more dangerous actions of Trump in 2020/21. A sitting president, using all the state, party, and personal resources at hand, attempted to destroy American democracy—and when this failed, he sat by for hours before calling his supporters, busy ravaging the Capitol, to heel. The attempted assassination of Trump was awful. Trump’s anti-democratic campaign and his supporters’ assault on the Capitol was awful. But one was much worse than the other: the two things are simply not comparable. Donald Trump and the Republican Party are the proponents and champions of political violence in America today.
This article is not an editorial, but it strikes me that the ideals of the Freethinker are more important than ever. Reason and argument, not political violence. Democracy, free speech, and secularism, not tyranny. As for those, like Tomi Lahren, who are praising ‘divine intervention’ for the delivery of Donald Trump and who were spouting conspiracy theories within minutes of the shooting, it can never be said enough: they really are irredeemably stupid—and, precisely for that reason, extremely dangerous. And they are the people who will cheer in November as Trump takes the White House. (I am no fan of Biden and the Democrats, either, by the way, but I recognise a genuine threat when I see one.)
I hope the people of the United States, the world’s first secular democratic republic, take these words of warning in the spirit of friendship with which they are offered. And I hope I am being overly pessimistic about Trump’s chances. Only time will tell, and perhaps there is still time for the American experiment to save itself.
The above was written pretty near immediately after the Trump assassination attempt. The pace of events has been such that the bullet whizzing past Trump’s ear now feels like ancient history. Joe Biden has gone limping off and bloodied into the sunset and Kamala Harris is the new Democratic candidate.
While I am glad some of my above pessimism has been disproven, it still feels too late to head off a Trump victory. Biden should never have stood in the first place, and Harris is hardly an inspiring replacement. Still, she’s having a bit of a honeymoon period, and perhaps she will rise to the occasion. An open convention would have been preferable, but at least the Democratic Party has shown that it can still discipline and mobilise itself effectively.
Can Harris win? The polling is still close and variable, though by ditching Biden the Democrats do seem to have given themselves a much better chance in November. If Harris keeps up the prosecutorial tough talk and avoids the worst excesses of the identitarian left, perhaps she will just manage to take the White House. Her political inconsistency and shallowness have now become her greatest strength instead of her greatest weakness: she can reinvent herself for the moment (again). And Trump would be unwise to take her on in a live debate. She’s much more formidable than Biden, and Trumpian boorishness won’t work against a much younger woman. Alas, he seems to be aware of this.
A belatedly reinvigorated Democratic Party is better than what we had just a few weeks ago. But something is telling me that it is still too late. The honeymoon won’t last, and I have some doubts, to put it mildly, as to Harris’s ability to rise to this historic moment. I hope once more to be proven wrong.
Meanwhile, the choice of a man with openly fascist leanings as running mate shows that Trump’s brush with that bullet has not changed him at all. Did anyone seriously think he would emerge a new man—as a unifier and a true patriot? If they did, they were fools. (This is not to mention his invocation of divine intervention and reassertion of the stolen election myth in his convention speech or his continuing openness about dismantling American democracy.) The assassination attempt and the Vance pick have just aroused the crazies even more. They have also inspired silliness atop silliness in some already very silly quarters.
Even if Harris wins and Trump exits stage left, Trumpism is going nowhere. And Trumpism without Trump, so breathlessly and naively admired by the likes of Andrew Sullivan, is still going to be a brew of thuggery and authoritarianism and Christian nationalism. The rot goes much deeper than one man, however vile and dangerous that man undoubtedly is.
And if Trump wins? Well, there’s no need to rehash the catastrophic consequences of that outcome. Nick Cohen, however, has noted that Europe must prepare for an American collapse. Should Trump win, Europe will be on its own; if he doesn’t, the need for Europe to step up, rather than remain beholden to the whims of the American electorate, will remain.
For now, it’s up to you, America.
A quick housekeeping note: I am moving house and will be taking a break for a few weeks, so I’ll be absent for a little while.
